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In the match-up that the bookmakers feel should be the closest contest of the 4 ties this week, Real Madrid travels to Stanford Bridge to take on the defending Champions League Winners in Chelsea —- who despite the chaos surrounding the club, have managed to remain together on the pitch. Up until the weekend, Chelsea had done a stellar job of focusing on their on-field endeavors, but Tuchel was at a loss to explain his side's capitulation against Brentford, as the Bees ran out 4-1 winners at Stamford Bridge to leave the home fans shell-shocked in their seats.
Seeing their six-game unbeaten run in all competitions come to an end in such bitterly disappointing fashion is not what the doctor ordered before a meeting with Real Madrid, but not since the 2010-11 season have the Blues been knocked out in the Champions League quarter-finals, and though The Blues' defense was breached at will by Brentford at the weekend, Tuchel's side enter the first leg having won each of their last five home games in the Champions League with five clean sheets.
Tasked with breaching Chelsea’s goal is Real Madrid, who find themselves in rather unfamiliar positions as the plucky underdogs many are looking past. Though it’s hard to blame anyone for looking over this not-so-Galácticos team; who followed their dream comeback against PSG with a 4-0 thrashing at the hands of Barcelona. The performance over the weekend was a listless one vs Celta Vigo, and Madrid required more Benzema heroics to nick the 3 points.
It’s undeniable Madrid will always possess the knack for magic, but with the return of Reese James to the Blues’, I’m backing Chelsea to handle the business against Anchilott’s Real Madrid —- and with away goals no longer being of extra value, I don’t see many goals being scored.
So with both those handicaps in mind, I’ve identified a pair of plays I’m quite fond of:
1st Half Under .5 (+155)
Chelsea/Under 3.5 (+155)
Can the Yellow Submarine of Villareal and the knock-out genius of Unai Emery dispatch a second heavyweight side this spring, or will Bayern add to their tally of 16 wins in their last 19 UCL matches?
These are the questions that loom largest over this matchup-up between the German superpower, Bayern Munich, and the plucky underdogs of Spanish football, Villareal, who will face one another in El Madrigal for the first leg. And as one would expect, Bayern is an overwhelming favorite across both legs —- slated as -1200 to advance to the next round. Suffice to say the oddsmakers feel rather strongly about the chances Bayern rolls Villareal, and while there is certainly reason to feel that way —— for example, Villareal has lost their last 3 matches since upsetting Juve. But even considering a poor run of form from Emery’s side, I just do not foresee Bayern running away with this tie.
If we travel back in time a few months to when I began giving out my plays publicly you’ll see that I backed Villareal to win the Champions League. And while I’d have gladly chosen to never play Bayern on route to cashing the 24-1 longshot, that doesn’t mean I’ve lost faith. In particular, Villareal does the things necessary to give Bayern a real test —- they can play out against the press the German superpower will employ, but perhaps more importantly —- Villareal isn’t afraid of pressing in response.
Emery’s side is 3rd in defensive touches per offensive action, and 4th in offensive touches per offensive action in La Liga, and displayed a world-class ability to limit opposition attacks against Juve —- allowing only 18 total touches in 18 yard-area over the two legs. Now it’s undeniable that Bayern, who averages 41 touches in the opposition box per game in the Bundesliga, is an absolute WAGON. They score for fun, defending from the front by pressing and attacking, and with the return of Groetzka maybe assume the defensive issues that have plagued them at times will subside —- and well I’m not so sure. WE ALL LIVE IN A YELLOW SUBMARINE.
Plays
- Villareal +1 (-102)
- Villaeral +.5 (+157)
While the UCL games will grab many of the headlines, the reality is the match that is taking place at TurfMor between Everton and Burnley that has the potential to dwarf them in consequences —- because while hoisting the Champions League trophy represents ultimate glory, relegation from the top-flight signals a kind of lasting anguish whose long-ranging effects can last decades. Just ask Leeds.
So to say the pressure is really mounting on Frank Lampard would be an understatement; with only 3 points separating the Toffees from the relegation zone this game represents Everton’s best chance of securing three points for almost a month. With the next four games against Manchester United, Leicester City, Liverpool, and Chelsea, it feels like now or never if Everton is to create any breathing room before the last month of the season.
Making matters worse is the lengthy injury list that is mounting for the Toffee’s; who are likely to be without 5 of their projected starters in Yira Mina, Seamus Coleman, Micahel Keane, Allan, and Ben Davis who are all either injured or suspended. So perhaps the criticism of the Chelsea legend is unfair, but I expect it to increase if Lampard can’t save this Evertonian side from relegation.
On the opposite touchline will be Sean Dyche, who, unlike Lampard, is no novice to a heated relegation battle, and much like Lampard is struggling at the backend with the injury bug. For a team whose playing staff is already slim, the injury to Ben Mee has meant Burnley’s defense has leaked goals. Which for a team that only managed 1+ xG twice over the last 16 games isn’t going to make for winning ways.
Look, neither team has been in a good run of form; with Everton managing only 1 win in their last 5, and with Burnley managing only a tie, but the injuries/suspensions that both sides are experiencing are primarily defensive. This paired with the necessity for a Burnley victory has me deeply enthused by the +122 juice I can get betting O2.5.
And if we are on O2.5 we’d be foolish to miss the BTTS at -106. So that’s my two plays for this MONSTER relegation 6-pointer.
Plays
Real Madrid vs Chelsea
Chelsea +107 \ +223 \ Draw +263 \ O/U 2.25
In the match-up that the bookmakers feel should be the closest contest of the 4 ties this week, Real Madrid travels to Stanford Bridge to take on the defending Champions League Winners in Chelsea —- who despite the chaos surrounding the club, have managed to remain together on the pitch. Up until the weekend, Chelsea had done a stellar job of focusing on their on-field endeavors, but Tuchel was at a loss to explain his side's capitulation against Brentford, as the Bees ran out 4-1 winners at Stamford Bridge to leave the home fans shell-shocked in their seats.
Seeing their six-game unbeaten run in all competitions come to an end in such bitterly disappointing fashion is not what the doctor ordered before a meeting with Real Madrid, but not since the 2010-11 season have the Blues been knocked out in the Champions League quarter-finals, and though The Blues' defense was breached at will by Brentford at the weekend, Tuchel's side enter the first leg having won each of their last five home games in the Champions League with five clean sheets.
Tasked with breaching Chelsea’s goal is Real Madrid, who find themselves in rather unfamiliar positions as the plucky underdogs many are looking past. Though it’s hard to blame anyone for looking over this not-so-Galácticos team; who followed their dream comeback against PSG with a 4-0 thrashing at the hands of Barcelona. The performance over the weekend was a listless one vs Celta Vigo, and Madrid required more Benzema heroics to nick the 3 points.
It’s undeniable Madrid will always possess the knack for magic, but with the return of Reese James to the Blues’, I’m backing Chelsea to handle the business against Anchilott’s Real Madrid —- and with away goals no longer being of extra value, I don’t see many goals being scored.
So with both those handicaps in mind, I’ve identified a pair of plays I’m quite fond of:
1st Half Under .5 (+155)
Chelsea/Under 3.5 (+155)
Villareal vs Bayern Munich
Villareal +480 \ Bayern -290 \ Draw +372 \ O/U 3.0
Can the Yellow Submarine of Villareal and the knock-out genius of Unai Emery dispatch a second heavyweight side this spring, or will Bayern add to their tally of 16 wins in their last 19 UCL matches?
These are the questions that loom largest over this matchup-up between the German superpower, Bayern Munich, and the plucky underdogs of Spanish football, Villareal, who will face one another in El Madrigal for the first leg. And as one would expect, Bayern is an overwhelming favorite across both legs —- slated as -1200 to advance to the next round. Suffice to say the oddsmakers feel rather strongly about the chances Bayern rolls Villareal, and while there is certainly reason to feel that way —— for example, Villareal has lost their last 3 matches since upsetting Juve. But even considering a poor run of form from Emery’s side, I just do not foresee Bayern running away with this tie.
If we travel back in time a few months to when I began giving out my plays publicly you’ll see that I backed Villareal to win the Champions League. And while I’d have gladly chosen to never play Bayern on route to cashing the 24-1 longshot, that doesn’t mean I’ve lost faith. In particular, Villareal does the things necessary to give Bayern a real test —- they can play out against the press the German superpower will employ, but perhaps more importantly —- Villareal isn’t afraid of pressing in response.
Emery’s side is 3rd in defensive touches per offensive action, and 4th in offensive touches per offensive action in La Liga, and displayed a world-class ability to limit opposition attacks against Juve —- allowing only 18 total touches in 18 yard-area over the two legs. Now it’s undeniable that Bayern, who averages 41 touches in the opposition box per game in the Bundesliga, is an absolute WAGON. They score for fun, defending from the front by pressing and attacking, and with the return of Groetzka maybe assume the defensive issues that have plagued them at times will subside —- and well I’m not so sure. WE ALL LIVE IN A YELLOW SUBMARINE.
Plays
- Villareal +1 (-102)
- Villaeral +.5 (+157)
Burnley vs Everton
Burnley +133 \ Everton +193 \ Draw +225 \ O/U 2.5
While the UCL games will grab many of the headlines, the reality is the match that is taking place at TurfMor between Everton and Burnley that has the potential to dwarf them in consequences —- because while hoisting the Champions League trophy represents ultimate glory, relegation from the top-flight signals a kind of lasting anguish whose long-ranging effects can last decades. Just ask Leeds.
So to say the pressure is really mounting on Frank Lampard would be an understatement; with only 3 points separating the Toffees from the relegation zone this game represents Everton’s best chance of securing three points for almost a month. With the next four games against Manchester United, Leicester City, Liverpool, and Chelsea, it feels like now or never if Everton is to create any breathing room before the last month of the season.
Making matters worse is the lengthy injury list that is mounting for the Toffee’s; who are likely to be without 5 of their projected starters in Yira Mina, Seamus Coleman, Micahel Keane, Allan, and Ben Davis who are all either injured or suspended. So perhaps the criticism of the Chelsea legend is unfair, but I expect it to increase if Lampard can’t save this Evertonian side from relegation.
On the opposite touchline will be Sean Dyche, who, unlike Lampard, is no novice to a heated relegation battle, and much like Lampard is struggling at the backend with the injury bug. For a team whose playing staff is already slim, the injury to Ben Mee has meant Burnley’s defense has leaked goals. Which for a team that only managed 1+ xG twice over the last 16 games isn’t going to make for winning ways.
Look, neither team has been in a good run of form; with Everton managing only 1 win in their last 5, and with Burnley managing only a tie, but the injuries/suspensions that both sides are experiencing are primarily defensive. This paired with the necessity for a Burnley victory has me deeply enthused by the +122 juice I can get betting O2.5.
And if we are on O2.5 we’d be foolish to miss the BTTS at -106. So that’s my two plays for this MONSTER relegation 6-pointer.
Plays
- Over 2.5 +112
- BTTS -106
